A Novel Take

I have have spent some number of pixels on the Turk-American-Kurd issue. While the Kurds can carryout hit-and-run attacks against Turkish troops, I have been curious about the end game. How do the conflicting interests resolve? As usual, John Robb presents a plausible scenario, applying his global guerilla heuristic to the question.

Current tightness in the oil markets (peak oil?) has presented the PKK, the Kurdish guerrilla group fighting the Turkish government, with an amazing opportunity. It can become responsible for sending oil prices over $100 a barrel and sowing panic in global markets.

How? This objective can be accomplished through a series of attacks on the BTC pipeline that runs from Azerbaijan to the Turkish port of Ceyhan (in a fashion similar to earlier attacks that PKK has made on less substantial pipelines). With over 750,000 barrels of oil flow a day (1 m a day next year) over 1,092 miles of pipeline, ongoing disruption would result in [several consequential outcomes].

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